calculate probability based on odds sports betting

Calculating Positive Expected Value - Example #2 (For European odds).The actual odds for probabilities of 60% and 44.5%.Let’s assume that we are overestimating the probability of Barcelona winning.Let’s calculate the Vig based on the calculated odds.Let’s calculate the odds implied by Bet360 for each of its lines (Probability).How to Find & Calculate Positive EV - Example #1 (For US odds).Now, subtract the vig from the implied probabilities:.First, calculate the implied probabilities of each outcome by dividing 1 by the odds:.What is Vig in Expected Value (US format odds)?.For US odds, if the bookmaker’s line is negative:.For US odds, if the bookmaker’s line is positive:.How to convert bookmaker odds (USA) into probability %.Example of a Bet with a Positive Expected Value (+EV).Example of a Bet with a Negative Expected Value (-EV).That’s why it is crucial to stick to the strategy until the end. However, in the long run, they will still come out ahead. Using this strategy, the player will lose some bets. The probability of winning this bet is usually higher than what the bookmaker assumes. It means that such a bet will win more than it loses in the long-term perspective (for example, by consistently betting at -110 odds, you will ultimately make a profit after 100 bets).

A positive +EV in sports betting is a bet that will be profitable in the long run.

It means that the probability of winning in the game is lower than expected. By calculating the expected value, a bettor can determine whether a particular bet is potentially profitable or not.Ī negative -EV in sports betting is a situation where the expected return from the bet is negative. It takes into account the probability of winning or losing and the potential payout. Expected Value (Value Bets) represents the average amount of money that a bettor can expect to win or lose on a specific bet over the long run. Expected Value (EV) Betting is a sports betting strategy based on looking for a gap between the true odds of something happening and the odds published by the bookmaker.

Calculate probability based on odds sports betting